Dear tens of readers,
I would like to encourage you all to go read the blog of someone who ISN'T completely preoccupied with really boring software programs.
How many times does something have to happen before you believe it's not just blind luck?
With presidential elections that number is pretty low. People in this nation elected George Bush TWICE. That's not just luck. That's a nation of people who are completely incomprehensible to me.
What about making baseball bets? How many bets would you have to make before you believed your results weren't due to good or bad luck? Two probably isn't enough. I arbitrarily decided that 100 was probably a pretty good number.
As you may recall, I've been spending much of my free time over the last couple months writing a computer program that would allow me to beat the casino. At this point it's a fairly complicated program, utilizing my favorite baseball statistics, some widely-accepted baseball principles, and a few numbers that I pulled straight out of my sphincter. The bits from the latter are unarguably the smelliest bits.
The program is by no means done. The data that it uses for it's decision making could use some cleaning, and the sphinter parts need a little.... uh.... tightening up. Regardless, the program is probably about 95% as accurate as it's ever going to get with my limited brain power behind it.
I've been running this program for a couple weeks now, and I've been making virtual bets with it against internet casino odds that I've found posted online. I've "placed" 121 of these imaginary bets and I've been tracking my results to see whether I would have won or lost money had these been real bets. 121 bets doesn't represent a huge amount of data, but it's a reasonable sample size.
So, what are my results? So far it looks like for every bet I place, I can expect to win about 9%.
9%! That's huge!
If your stocks went up 9% every year, you'd consider that to be a decent investment. What if they went up 9% EVERY DAY? That's what has happened so far with my imaginary bets.
Of course, I realize that there's a lot of luck involved here, and my results over the last couple weeks don't guarantee anything about future results, but I'm positively giddy over what I see here so far. Although it's entirely possible that a few days of bad luck could wipe out my virtual winnings, similarly a few good days could significantly increase them. Really, there's only one teensy-tiny little eensy-weensy problem.
Sports gambling is sort of, kind of, not entirely legal in California. :(
So now I just need to figure out how to make money off this software. Would anyone out there like to pay me, say $1,000,000 for this? I'll throw in the damn Ginsu knives.