Thursday, November 01, 2007

The 2007 baseball season has come to an end and with it I documented the results of all my faux baseball bets. You can read the gory details at my baseball gambler blog, but here's the management summary:

I wrote an overly complex piece of software to see if I could make money from baseball gambling. It analyzed baseball games and odds using a database of baseball statistics and a bunch of algorithms that I mostly pulled out of my ass. By the end of the season I had made about 530 pretend bets, totaling about $2400. I ended up losing $32.

That's a lot of work to lose 32 imaginary dollars.

I've contemplated this result and what can be learned from it. I came to the only logical conclusion:

If I can write software on a topic that I know well (like baseball analysis) that ends up losing me 32 imaginary dollars, then I should also be able to write software on a topic that I don't know at all (the stock market) that will end up making me thousands of real dollars.

Yes, you read that right. After failing to produce faux gambling profit, I am using a similar technique and real money to try and make money on the stock market. I know I say this often, but this may be my worst idea yet.

I'll let you know when I retire from my day job.


Avery Gray said...

FYI: Being locked away in the poorhouse does not constitute retirement. But good luck with that!

Mike said...

There's really a poorhouse? Sweet! We'll call that Plan A.

tinyhands said...

I'll sell you one of my statistics textbooks (like new, hardly used) for $10 and if it talks you out of writing the software you'll have made $22!

Mike said...

Louie, you're too late. The software is written.

tinyhands said...

Ok, this should be at least as entertaining as your sports betting program. :)

Mike said...

Yeah, unfortunately, there will be no auto-blogging of its results. You'll just have to wait for periodic updates.

(And after about 4 months of activity, I'm up a whopping 5%).

Anonymous said...

> I know I say this often, but this may be my worst idea yet.