The 2007 baseball season has come to an end and with it I documented the results of all my faux baseball bets. You can read the gory details at my baseball gambler blog, but here's the management summary:
I wrote an overly complex piece of software to see if I could make money from baseball gambling. It analyzed baseball games and odds using a database of baseball statistics and a bunch of algorithms that I mostly pulled out of my ass. By the end of the season I had made about 530 pretend bets, totaling about $2400. I ended up losing $32.
That's a lot of work to lose 32 imaginary dollars.
I've contemplated this result and what can be learned from it. I came to the only logical conclusion:
If I can write software on a topic that I know well (like baseball analysis) that ends up losing me 32 imaginary dollars, then I should also be able to write software on a topic that I don't know at all (the stock market) that will end up making me thousands of real dollars.
Yes, you read that right. After failing to produce faux gambling profit, I am using a similar technique and real money to try and make money on the stock market. I know I say this often, but this may be my worst idea yet.
I'll let you know when I retire from my day job.